May delivered the goods right across the Maldives.
As forecast last month, a strong pulse from the SE lit up the east-facing breaks. The Westerly monsoon winds were gusty at times, with a trend to SW and so the rights like Kandooma were nicely groomed. Unfortunately, some of the lefts were side-onshore, but still very surfable under the same conditions.
Kandooma Right – South Male Atoll
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Pasta Point – North Male Atoll
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As we moved to the end of May 2022, the SE swell eased and was replaced by a stronger long-period south swell, impacting across the archipelago. The Central Atolls enjoyed the longer period swells with many hollow sessions going down as the swell wrapped on to east-facing reefs.
Yin Yangs – Central Atolls
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June has started well, with Kandooma serving up flawless barells on 6th of June
Season Outlook 2022
As discussed last month, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole has strengthened. The consensus is that that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will be strongly negative through the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring months.
This is good news for surfers heading to the Maldives.
The IOD is a phenomena where ocean temperatures are warmer off Indonesia and cooler off the African coast, like an Indian Ocean version of El Niño/La Niña. With a negative IOD in 2022, we expect to see more strong mid-latitude low pressure systems pushing up in to the swell window for the Maldives. The SE swell in late May was a great example of this type of system. The Trade Wind belt is stronger south of Indonesia, which is well-aligned to see small to medium ESE trade swell hang around in the background throughout the Maldives surf season.
Surfline Lotus Chart for May 30th 2022 showing classical Negative IOD, Note both SE trade winds of WA coast sending swell toward Maldives along with pulse of S Groundswell from Roaring 40s Cut Off Low.
Forecast 8 -13 June
A powerful polar low traversing the Southern Ocean is sending a long period SSW groundswell to the Maldives in Early June (Pink Line, 5.2ft @19 seconds on 8 June. This exceptionally long period groundswell should see some sets in the double overhead + range at south facing reefs of the Central Atolls. Waves like Vodi, Mauroofs could see the swell of the season to date! While the direction favours breaks with south exposure, the long period should see it wrap on to the east facing reefs, albeit at reduced size. This swell hangs around for a couple of days before a second pulse of similar size and strength peaks on Sunday 12th June. The best news is that winds are light to moderate, tensing WSW – favouring south- and east-facing right handers from Central to Male Atolls. Everywhere form Yin Yangs, Machines, F1s, Kandooma Right, Jails and Sultans should be on the pump!
Central Atolls on the pump
At the same time, a mid-range SE trade swell (3-4 foot at 9 seconds) will fill in the long waits between sets from the SSW groundswell. The east-facing breaks that might not get all the SSW will still be consistent in the head high range. Breaks like Rip Tides, Kandooma Right, Quarters and Ninjas should still be super fun for intermediate surfers. Keep an eye on the wind; the SE direction is not good for the lefts but it’s expected to back off to light winds from about 13th June.
Marked up Surfline forecast 8-12 June. Pink Line SSW Groundswell, Green line SE trade swell.
Forecast 14 -19 June 2022
The fun continues in to mid June while the SSW groundswell gradually eases. Thankfully, the SSE-SE trade swell hangs in around the 3-4 foot range throughout before rebounding strongly toward 17 June onwards. The slow decline of SSW swell will be most noticed as south swell magnets like Cokes in Male Atolls and South and West facing reefs of the Central Atolls.
The continuation of SSE swell is expected as the ESE trade winds become established across a broad fetch of Indian Ocean South of the Equator. However, it is the cut-off lows pushing in to mid latitudes off the WA coast that provide the extra push. Local wind fields in the Maldives are expected to ease, tending towards slack from about 16th onwards as a strong high pressure ridge becomes established across the archipelago.
Pulsing SSE and glassy surface conditions might be found by those surfers lucky enough to be in the Maldives in the 3rd week of June.
Almost everywhere could be on the pump in these sort of conditions.
Marked up Surfline forecast 13-19 June. Pink Line SSW Groundswell, Green line SE trade swell.
Note the strong pulse of SSE swell impacting Maldives from 17 June is driven by a cut off low with a strong fetch of SSE winds traversing the Indian Ocean. This is a feature of a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole at the moment.
2022 should be another epic surf season across the Maldives.
Marked up Swellnet WAM for 14 June showing both SE trade winds and Cut off Indian Ocean low driving SSE swell towards the Maldives.
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