Well, the main Maldives surf season kicked off nicely in April with a pulsing round of South-East trade swell in late April, lighting up the Male and Central Atolls. Right on time, the light westerly winds kicked in, resulting in standout sessions across many of our favourite east-facing breaks.

Kandooma Right had non-stop mid-sized fun and glassy conditions for last couple of weeks; check out the everyday fun waves on Insta.

 

 
 
 
 
 
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A post shared by Perfect Wave (@perfectwavetravel)

However, it’s the Southern Atolls that have really outperformed in recent weeks; a series of longer period SSW groundswells lit up the south-facing reefs in late April. Even better, glassy conditions have meant unbelievably beautiful waves for those lucky enough to be on Southern Atolls charters in April.

 

 
 
 
 
 
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A post shared by Perfect Wave (@perfectwavetravel)

 

 
 
 
 
 
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A post shared by S U R F M A L D I V E S (@maldivessurfcharters)

Season Outlook 2022

The major climate models and agencies have recently arrived at a consensus that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will be strongly negative through the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring months. This is good news for surfers heading to the Maldives. The IOD is a phenomena where ocean temperatures are warmer off Indonesia and cooler off the African coast, like an Indian Ocean version of El Nino/La Nina. With a negative IOD in 2022 we expect to see more strong mid-latitude low pressure systems pushing up in to the swell window for the Maldives. The first example of this is expected next week; read on for more on this.

Forecast 8 -13 May

So the Maldives have been graced with some fun swell from the SE, however, now it is May and the swell train kicks in to a new gear. Background SSW swell around 2-3 feet @14 seconds (pink line) hangs in for the whole week. South and West facing reefs of Southern and Central Atolls will be fun, however, could be affected by gusty side-onshore WNW winds at times.

The East-facing breaks of Male and Central Atolls will enjoy consistent SE trade swell (green line) around 3 foot @11 sec – building in size and consistency toward 4 – 5 foot by 13 May. Even better, the period is lengthening toward a more powerful 12-sec plus and graced by all day offshores from the west.

Marked up Swell Chart for 8-13 May based on Surfline Charts

Marked up Swell Chart for 8-13 May based on Surfline Charts

Forecast 14 May onwards

Swell Alert – Major SE swell inbound from 12 May.

A rare tropical low is set to intensify, possibly reaching cyclone strength right in the middle of the Maldives SE Swell window, setting up a powerful and long lasting swell. This low is cradled by a strong high and as the pressure gradient increases a broad fetch of 30kn SE winds are aimed straight at the Maldives along with embedded fetch exceeding 50kn. See below forecast ocean surface winds for 8 May. This system is expected to hang around in similar location pumping out serious swell until around 13 May when it will probably be absorbed in to the trade wind field.

Marked up Surface Winds for Indian Ocean 8 May based on Swellnet WAMS

Marked up Surface Winds for Indian Ocean 8 May based on Swellnet WAMS

This uncommon location and strength of this low is set to hit the Maldives with a round of SE swell that will build from 4 foot around 12 May, reaching 6 foot at 13 seconds+ around 15th to 17th May. Expect to see well-overhead waves, possibly double-overhead plus, at exposed East and SE facing breaks of Male Atolls. Local winds are looking great with moderate westerlies easing and tending WSW. Breaks like Kandooma Right will be absolutely cooking under these conditions, trending good to epic!

Marked up Swell Chart for 15-20 May based on Surfline Charts

Marked up Swell Chart for 15-20 May based on Surfline Charts

The rest of the month of May sees a likely continuation of SE swell from the trade wind belt, albeit at more modest size in the 3-4 foot range from 19 May onward.

Written by:
Chris Buykx

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