Some years it just happens, it just clicks into gear and starts chugging away.
Mentawai, early March 2024. 📷 by Jaran Pantic
2024 is one of those years when the small to medium swells of January and February started pushing into medium to solid swells in March followed by a solid to macking swell to end March and into April.
All of this, accompanied by periods of light and variable winds and occasional stormy or gusty westerlies. Of course, when you are in the Mentawai with plenty of swell, there will always be a clean wave somewhere, and sometimes those waves will be some of the best in the world.
Mentawai, early March 2024. 📷 by Jaran Pantic
Surf Report March 2024
The Mentawai enjoyed a series of mid range SW swells from the first week of March to the end of month. The Oasis first charter of the season was on the spot and scored some epic sessions across the southern Pagai breaks
The last days of March were a highlight when a large longer period groundswell with lots of West hit the Mentawai. Local winds trended westerly which favoured some breaks while some of the regular spots were wind affected.
Lances Right, aka Hollow Trees (HT’s ) was a true standout with a number incredible sessions going down with roll ins from ‘The Office” in large doubled up blue caves.
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Mentawai, mid March 2024. 📷 by Tyde Gacke / TYGphoto
Surf Forecast April 2024
Bali and East Indo
A tropical cyclone is forming south of Indonesia and will track SW as it deepens of the Western Australian coast. This tropical storm will produce unusual swell from the SE to S direction in the 8 – 10 second range which should result in overhead waves in Balis exposed breaks from 8th April before easing and a small to mid sized series of SW groundswell take over for the nest week of mid April. Winds are as expected at this time, with light and variable winds and occasional westerlies. At this stage, there is no sign of the trade winds becoming embedded until later in the season.
Sumatra
After the thumping start to the month with the large SW groundswell lighting up select breaks for several days, middle April is looking more like regular shoulder season. A series of SSW groundswells should keep the waves in the fun zone across Sumatra under slack winds ie: light and variable if not glassy. Expect waist to head high waves at the south exposed breaks of Sumatra from 6 April to 17 April with stronger pulses 9-12 April.
A new long period groundswell >17 seconds from SW should fill in from the 18th April with expectations of reinforcing pulses in the week following and a series of long period swells from SW and SSW as the roaring forties storm track becomes embedded south of the African continent.
Long term forecast indicates lower than average pressure anomaly South East of the African Continent, this bodes well from swell production from this quadrant in mid 2024. Marked up WAM from Swellnet
Season Outlook – reverting to classic winds and swell patterns
A trend towards a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole is good news for Indo bound surfers. Firstly this means that winds around Sumatra should be expected to to revert to a more normal strength and direction compared to the strong winds during the 2023 positive IOD. In Bali and East Indo, surfers should expect the regular ESE trade wind field should establish in May and hold through until September. The unseasonal rains and winds that affected Bali in June and July 2023 were a produced by the strong positive IOD, so the expectation is a netral IOD in 2024 is more regular trade winds and fine weather – ie: perfect offshores at Ulus, Padang Padang, Bingin and G-Land.
On the swell production side, there are early suggestions of negative air pressure anomaly to the SE of the African continent, forecast to deepen from April in to July. This indicates the SW storm track is set to roar in perfect position to send long period SW groundswells towards the entire Indonesian Archipelago. A positive air pressure anomally to the South of the Australian continent at the same time suggest the storm track will be pushed away resulting fewer South swells than usual. This SW direction is good for everywhere from Rote and Sumba in the East through to Telos, Banyaks and Simeulue in the North West of Sumatra.
Mentawai, mid March 2024. 📷 by Tyde Gacke / TYGphoto
Mentawai, early March 2024. 📷 by Jaran Pantic
Mentawai, early March 2024. 📷 by Jaran Pantic
Oasis Mentawai surf charter, early March 2024. 📷 by Jaran Pantic
INDO SURF CHARTERS