June was a joy for Maldives surfers; days and days of consistent mid sized swells groomed by light to moderate offshores. The sort of conditions that make for very memorable surf trips. Especially when there is a few standout sessions when all the variables align to create those moments of perfection.
The lefts of South Male can be fickle – but when they turn on, they’re world class. Foxys did its thing for a lucky crew at Kandooma who scored when they came over on the regular boat trips.
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The groomed perfection at South Male was a contrast to the raw power of the SW facing breaks of the Central Atolls in Mid June. As forecast, a strong pulse of ground swell lit up Mauroof at Dhaalu and a few surfers on board Perfect Wave charters were on hand to score some double-overhead-plus bombs.
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7 July 2022 Outlook – Swell Alert: A Week of Solid Groundswell Inbound!
Surfers heading to South and West exposed breaks in early June better pack a their step-up boards! The Indian Ocean is fully lighting up in early July with a major extra long period groundswell traversing the entire Indian Ocean from 2nd July. A large, powerful system has pushed in to the swell window from deep below South Africa. Given its strength and westerly location this SSW is set to push strongly in to the Maldives before continuing on to Indo from 3rd July.
While the Maldives will not experience the sheer size that will hit the Mentawai, surfers at SW exposed breaks like Vodi and Mauroofs can expect to see large step-ladder sets impacting in the double to triple overhead range. With swell peaking at 8.3 feet @19 seconds around midday on the 2nd July, unfortunately, local winds are also set to get gusty from the west as the swell peaks so local conditions won’t be inviting at the most exposed breaks.
Swellnet Swell period WAM – 3rd July – nb: 20 second plus swell traversing Indian Ocean
The good news is that such long period swells tend to wrap around the Atolls and also offer some long walled joy on the east-facing reefs, albeit at smaller size. From 3rd July through to the 5th July, the swell gradually eases from 6 foot @16 seconds to around 4 foot at 14 seconds – this is still a strong swell. The local winds ease to the moderate range and trend NW so some of the South exposed lefts like Vodi in Dhaalu and Chickens in Male Atolls could really turn on.
Surfline Forecast Male Atolls – first week of July
A new pulse of SSW groundswell reinforces from the 6th July before trending more due South and hanginging in around the 4-5 foot size at 13 seconds for a few days. Moderate NW winds will favour the lefts as the East facing rights tend side onshore.
Forecast 8 -13 July – South swell trends South East
The strong system that drove all the SSW groundswell has spawned a cut off low in mid latitudes that is directing a moderate fetch back from the SSE towards the Maldives.
Swellnet Surface winds – 3rd July – note strong fetch from SSE back toward Maldives
The regular transition from the SW around to South the SE of Indian Ocean swell systems keeps all the main breaks active throughout. As the swell period drops from 16 sec SSW to 13 seconds South, the swell wraps less however the improved angle keeps the wave heights consistent. The trend will be apparent from 7 July (5 foot South swell @ 13 sec) to 11 July (4 foot SE swell @10 sec). A slight northerly bias in the wind will again favour the lefts however most East and South oriented breaks can expect good waves in the head high to overhead range all week.
The trend after 12 July at this stage is for more mid-range to strong SE swells from a strong trade wind belt stretching from Indonesia to Western Australia and across much of the Indian Ocean. The sheer expanse of this wind field along with embedded cut off mid latitude lows will send regular pulses of ideally oriented SSE – SE swell back toward the Maldives. There is still plenty of potential for the swell of the season so far grace the Maldives in later July 2022.
Season Outlook 2022
As discussed last month, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole has strengthened. The consensus is that that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will be strongly negative through the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring months. This is good news for surfers heading to the Maldives. The IOD is a phenomena where ocean temperatures are warmer off Indonesia and cooler off the African coast, like an Indian Ocean version of El Nino/La Nina. With a negative IOD in 2022 we expect to see more strong mid-latitude low pressure systems pushing up in to the swell window for the Maldives. The SE swell in late May was a great example of this type of system. The Trade Wind belt is stronger south of Indonesia, which is well aligned to see small to medium ESE trade swell hang around in the background throughout the Maldives Surf Season.
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