Maldives Surf Report and Forecast – May 2023

Last updated: 10 May, 2023

Late April 2023 offered a decent pulse of SSE that lit up Kandooma and a range of waves across the Maldives.

The light and variable winds ensured that many breaks were on the pump. Many called it the best day of the season so far.

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A return to normal programming in the Indian Ocean has happened

with the Indian Ocean Dipole having reverted to neutral after last year’s strong negative event. In the Maldives, the annual ‘Monsoon’ wind change arrived at the start of May, with gusty Westerly winds and squally conditions over the first week of May. Although conditions were not postcard perfect, Barton Lynch and crew still managed to score some decent sessions at Mauroofs in the Central Atolls, once the wind settled down.

Barton at Mauroofs after the storm. 📸Steven Lanfranco

Season Outlook

May 2023 is a classic Maldives season, with an early stormy start to the Monsoon from the start from the 3rd of May. Hopefully the worst of the weather is now behind us, and the season settles down to the consistent moderate westerly winds we expect. There will be the occasional squall as usual, but we do not expect the strong South Westerlies we had last season. Back in 2022, the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) became established, a lot like the Pacific Oceans La Niña, the IOD can have wide ranging effects – some good for surfers, some not so good. Last year enjoyed plenty of swell – especially out of the South East quadrant – however, persistent gusty winds out of the South West favoured some breaks like Kandooma, whereas many others were wind affected, especially the Male Atolls lefts (Pasta, Lohis, Honkeys) and south- and west-facing breaks of the Central Atolls (Vodi, Mauroofs).

The good news for 2023 is the IOD is now trending slightly positive,

which should result in more consistent Westerly winds, and more surfing options facing south-east to south-west.

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Forecast 10 – 17 May 2023

A series of low-pressure systems combine with trade-wind field to the West of Australia, to develop a sustained SSE swell train aimed toward the Maldives. This swell will pulse and ebb in the 3 foot plus range for at least the the next week, from 10th May right through to 17th May. Expect to see some of the stronger pulses around 11th and again on 16th May (3.6 foot SSE 10 seconds). This swell direction works almost everywhere, so the wind direction is important. Westerly winds on 10 May trend SW after the 11th May through to 16th May. This will favour the rights like Kandooma Right and Machines, while the SE facing lefts will tend side to onshore. The SW groundswell will remain smaller (<2 foot) throughout the week.

Forecast from 18 May 2023

The long running SSE swell train will dial back in to the 2 foot plus range from 17th May onwards, yet remain in the mix, filling in smaller peelers at the East-facing breaks. However, the SW swell window sparks back into life from around 18th May onwards, when a long period 15 second pulse will build from 2 foot to 3 foot plus. Local winds across the Central Atolls are expected to ease to a lighter West to WNW direction, ensuring any break with some exposure to South swells should light up.

From 20th May, a stronger SSW swell should fill in with forerunners coming in around 20 seconds and building to 3 foot plus. Expect long wait between sets, then wide-breaking, long-walled runners peeling down the reefs. From 21st onwards, this groundswell will become dominant in the 4 foot plus, 16 second range and rotating to a more due-south direction. The good news is: the longer period will see these waves wrap on to the east facing breaks like Kandooma, so expect more swell than the direction would suggest.

Towards the end of the month (23rd May onwards), a broadening of the SE trade wind field west of Australia indicates another extended run of SE trade swell in the 3-4 foot range, right through to end of the month.

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